Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.339435 0.384137 0.432634 0.489179 0.553325 0.623872 0.707395
2025-10-19 0.276944 0.336905 0.406866 0.494611 0.601864 0.728884 0.891029
2025-10-26 0.234506 0.304387 0.391430 0.508030 0.660509 0.853648 1.117722
2025-11-02 0.190118 0.261814 0.356615 0.491515 0.679230 0.932217 1.300838
2025-11-09 0.153433 0.223112 0.320457 0.466932 0.682829 0.991060 1.467627
2025-11-16 0.129027 0.197371 0.297870 0.457193 0.705043 1.078578 1.689335
2025-11-23 0.109149 0.175001 0.276562 0.445596 0.722146 1.160615 1.916230
2025-11-30 0.097647 0.163676 0.270206 0.455891 0.774602 1.304943 2.265989
2025-12-07 0.083235 0.145347 0.249808 0.439824 0.780772 1.374143 2.500887
2025-12-14 0.072764 0.132071 0.235810 0.432307 0.800070 1.468020 2.794279
2025-12-21 0.063979 0.120435 0.222915 0.424595 0.817439 1.560438 3.099708
2025-12-28 0.059352 0.115731 0.221809 0.438464 0.877180 1.740315 3.604143
2026-01-04 0.053249 0.107540 0.213413 0.437821 0.910247 1.877212 4.054124
2026-01-11 0.048496 0.101336 0.208021 0.442469 0.955097 2.045685 4.603193
2026-01-18 0.044993 0.097182 0.206179 0.454290 1.017260 2.261102 5.297147
2026-01-25 0.039604 0.088218 0.192994 0.439460 1.018373 2.343489 5.701633
2026-02-01 0.034394 0.078885 0.177684 0.417471 0.999568 2.377732 5.998025
2026-02-08 0.030831 0.072772 0.168684 0.408739 1.010731 2.484315 6.495278
2026-02-15 0.027605 0.066977 0.159593 0.398366 1.016197 2.578024 6.977859
2026-02-22 0.025933 0.064683 0.158455 0.407517 1.072620 2.809403 7.875015
2026-03-01 0.023129 0.059177 0.148719 0.393177 1.065309 2.873999 8.322137
2026-03-08 0.021042 0.055202 0.142260 0.386464 1.077493 2.993050 8.950052
2026-03-15 0.019176 0.051538 0.136091 0.379580 1.088096 3.109613 9.594393